Over the past century, 40% of shareholder returns have come from 1% of all companies.
Identifying these companies is oftentimes a function of investor’s early discovery of market themes & narratives. Those “megatrends”affecting not just individual companies or sectors but the entire economy.
This is the kind of approach to investing we utilize at Citrini Research. We attempt to highlight and demystify themes that will define the market’s distribution of returns for years to come.
By incorporating macroeconomics, second-order thinking, top-down sector analysis and a lateral approach to individual equities and markets in general, we aim to discover early & expand upon these themes for our clients.
It is our most firmly held conviction that narratives drive markets more than any other factor. While our strategy has been defined in many ways by many people, we are solely concerned with one thing: doing what works.
We maintain a no-nonsense approach to investing that focuses on the most asymmetric opportunities to grow your money. A holistic approach that takes into account both behavioral and fundamental aspects of the most important trends impacting the value of your portfolio.
Unequivocally, Citrini Research has been at the top of the thematic equity investment game since it began - highlighting the promise of companies like Nvidia (NVDA), Eli Lily (LLY), Eaton (ETN) and many, many more since we began publishing in early 2023.
All have been presented through our unique view on the secular thematic tailwinds present, providing our readers with the conviction necessary to hold for the long term and realize outsized gains.
Here’s what you can expect as a paying client of Citrini Research:
As a paid subscriber, you’ll receive two to three in-depth thematic primers per year - covering what we believe are “mega-trends” in markets. These thematic equity primers are not trades - they’re trends that I believe will affect asset prices for years - if not decades. And the baskets we provide in association with them attempt to achieve an excellent risk-adjusted and absolute return profile.
These are themes that have wide-reaching implications across industries and asset classes and utilize carefully constructed long/short equity baskets that attempt to completely eliminate factors other than the theme itself.
Elections, advancements in healthcare and technology, fiscal and monetary policy, energy requirements, secular consumer trends and many more.
You can view the themes we have covered and are currently covering here:
Our promise is simple: If it is going to change the way investors think about the market, we’re going to be there early sharing our thoughts, ideas, frameworks and expectations for navigating those changes. No useless pontification, no discussions without actionable insight, no BS.
As a CitriniResearch client, you’ll never have to ask “What’s the trade?”.
You’ll also receive regular updates on new developments in these themes as they progress. Additionally, we share our market overview regularly to ensure you’re never taken off-guard by the broad market shifts - whether driven by monetary policy, fiscal policy, geopolitics or anything else.
Finally, we share our CitriniResearch core portfolio with all paid clients. Updated weekly with changes alerted in real time via the substack chat feature, our Citrini Research Core Portfolio or “Citrindex” has generated more than +100% in total return in the first year since inception.
This portfolio strategy utilizes diversification on a security level with concentration at the thematic level by implementing exposure to trends using our purpose-built “baskets” of equities and other instruments.
We implement these baskets and this strategy to isolate the impact of these trends from other risks we don’t wish to take. The average factor-based returns on our thematic baskets are comprised of greater than 80% selection effect.
While some articles are focused on being timely, with implied expiration dates to the insights therein, most of the thematic ones are designed to be referred back to over the course of months, if not years, as the trends play out.
I highly recommend that new subscribers go and read our published primers encompassing the unique themes and megatrends we have recognized and believe will continue to generate outsized returns well into the future.
As an additional bonus, I keep a journal of tactical positioning in my global macro book and my read on the market prior to significant economic data or earnings releases in the Substack Chat feature, which are mostly reserved for paid subscribers.
Feel free to reach out with any questions or comments, you’ll have direct access to me in our sites chat and DM features.
Here are some examples of our past work, where you can view free previews to get a better idea of how we operate:
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, Part One
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning: Part Two
US Fiscal Primacy:
Quarterly, I write up a cross-asset memo focusing on the most interesting opportunities in various markets along with an overview of the current macroeconomic environment and market regime. An example of something like this would be the macro overview published August 5th 2023 on China:
