I tend to agree with the counter view you put out here, "whimper not a bang". This is a multiplayer game in a complex, underdetermined system. And it remains to be seen how much of a real-economy shock this is. This is definitely against my political bias, and the tariffs are stupid and haphazard in a brain-damaged sort of way, but 1. everyone has had five years since COVID to practice handling supply chain shocks and 2. it's not like this is a surprise, I've been seeing supply chain/tariff questions on earnings calls for six months. Tariffs will bite in the areas where importers have no good alternative, but those are areas where the supplier delivers high value anyway. Meanwhile, there certainly are many domestic producers who are about to reap a windfall of business. Tariffs tend to rearrange winners and losers far more than they create winners or losers on net.
Thank you for the article. Very insightful. Could you briefly explain how did you calculate the cascade of tariffs across different sectors? I struggle to understand the calculation behind it.
I tend to agree with the counter view you put out here, "whimper not a bang". This is a multiplayer game in a complex, underdetermined system. And it remains to be seen how much of a real-economy shock this is. This is definitely against my political bias, and the tariffs are stupid and haphazard in a brain-damaged sort of way, but 1. everyone has had five years since COVID to practice handling supply chain shocks and 2. it's not like this is a surprise, I've been seeing supply chain/tariff questions on earnings calls for six months. Tariffs will bite in the areas where importers have no good alternative, but those are areas where the supplier delivers high value anyway. Meanwhile, there certainly are many domestic producers who are about to reap a windfall of business. Tariffs tend to rearrange winners and losers far more than they create winners or losers on net.
Another blitzkrieg of supply chain disruptions just as manufacturers are recovering from those of of the COVID era.
Hi Citrini,
Thank you for the article. Very insightful. Could you briefly explain how did you calculate the cascade of tariffs across different sectors? I struggle to understand the calculation behind it.
Thank you!
Great piece thanks. Euro stocks will be more cushioned due to fiscal spending or the tarrifs will run the fiscal impulse over in the short term?