Macro Memo: Summer Blues

The Economy Hums Along

In this piece, we provide updates on:

• The US economy and job market

• Where the US-China trade war stands

• The Israel-Iran conflict

• When the Fed will cut

• Our macro positioning

Unlike the last macro memo, we don’t have a contrarian macro view. Our diagnoses and predictions have mostly borne out to be accurate:

• Recession risk was overstated and has receded

• The US-China trade war has de-escalated

• Disinflation continues and tariff-driven inflation is muted

• Rate cuts were priced out of June-Dec 25 SOFR relative to Dec 25-June 26 SOFR, with the spread reaching 0bps

• WTI Crude Oil has risen from $57.80 to $75