Yes this has done very well since December with this basket outperforming SMH by about 30-40% (impressive, if I do say so myself, for an equal weighted basket against cap weighted when considering the massive outperformance by NVDA).
IBM has disappointed me too many times when it comes to cutting edge tech. Might they be successful? Probably. But I am sure whatever they create will be either more expensive or less advanced than TSMC. Also, TSMC is cheaper (geopolitical risk premium that I'm glad to earn).
hi, I'm curious to know Abbn is a 10 on benefits (maximum rating) and also in all three phases so rationale to avoid it in your Holdings...
secondly, many of these stocks may have a strong run up in recent weeks so how would you recommend approaching this...buy a starter position now or wait for some exuberance to pull back 5-10% and then buy?
lastly what % of the overall portfolio you feel this should get? strong conviction or medium conviction?
ABB is a 10 because robotic automation is both a component of semiconductor manufacturing & is an inevitable winner in artificial intelligence. I like it as well as ROK longer term.
I think if you want to execute this in a price sensitive manner individually (as opposed to as a basket, similar to how you would with an ETF), you could use the excel sheets provided and filter for the names which seem to screen well on valuation metrics.
Have you got a chance to check the PATH (UiPath) stock - RPA software developer which claims to integrate some sort of AI stuff (part of its software). In 2017 I had a chance to pass Accenture Bootcamp in RPA and was amazed how this RPA stuff can automatize workflow. Probably, now it is even more efficient.
+ The product has leading position in the field according to Gartner (valued higher than Microsoft's stuff)
+ SBC seems slowing
+ Ai component + Automatization
+ Technically, the stock looks like starting from the base of 10-20 usd (former highs at 80-90ies)
+ Acquisiton target for CRM/MSFT and others?
- Kathy seems to like it
===
would be great to hear smth critical against this stock.
Hi Citrini I just paid for the annual subscription and I am still showing up as a free subscriber on Substack. My email is maraj.kevin@gmail.com please help to resolve this.
AVGO's networking equip is actually a big deal because data centers do not want to get locked into NVIDIA even more with InfiniBand and etc. The reason why NVIDIA gets used over AMD is mostly because of CUDA.
Also tensorFlow sucks and Google don't know how to build good products.
Citrini, does it make sense to buy calls and sell puts on some of these names for a year horizon? Just wondering how to enter now given NDX is starting to flirt with all time highs and all these names have run up very steeply!
Do you think that the overperformance of your basket vs SMH is due to the inclusion of non-US holdings ? Have you ever charted your non-US as a basket versus SMH ? As a way to simplify the investment process one strategy could be to buy SMH and add the non-US holdings individually, maybe.
Mr. Citrini, have you ever considered an idea to play AI cycle via mining sector?
The following logic might be applied: Semiconductors, electrification might require more specific metals (Copper, tin, graphene, ...), so we can research for suitable mining players in this area. High beta play - explor. co's (preferably in N.A. region - US, Canada). TSXV index seems to be in big depression.
If you didn't want to worry about directionality one could get long the basket and short SMH - as a ratio or in full.
Yes this has done very well since December with this basket outperforming SMH by about 30-40% (impressive, if I do say so myself, for an equal weighted basket against cap weighted when considering the massive outperformance by NVDA).
This is advancement in reasoning AI, robotics will not be a big beneficiary. But robotic automation could
Really great write-up. Thanks
IBM - the oldest, stagnating company is not included (probably there are strong reasons) got my attention for this news (the world's first 2 nm node chip - https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/ibm-and-rapidus-team-up-to-advance-semiconductor-ecosystem-in-japan/ ) and its underperforming price is trying to rally. They also have-had a Watson tech (not sure how efficient is it).
Does this Co have too weak fundamentals to be included in the list? thanks
IBM has disappointed me too many times when it comes to cutting edge tech. Might they be successful? Probably. But I am sure whatever they create will be either more expensive or less advanced than TSMC. Also, TSMC is cheaper (geopolitical risk premium that I'm glad to earn).
hi, I'm curious to know Abbn is a 10 on benefits (maximum rating) and also in all three phases so rationale to avoid it in your Holdings...
secondly, many of these stocks may have a strong run up in recent weeks so how would you recommend approaching this...buy a starter position now or wait for some exuberance to pull back 5-10% and then buy?
lastly what % of the overall portfolio you feel this should get? strong conviction or medium conviction?
Thanks.
ABB is a 10 because robotic automation is both a component of semiconductor manufacturing & is an inevitable winner in artificial intelligence. I like it as well as ROK longer term.
I think if you want to execute this in a price sensitive manner individually (as opposed to as a basket, similar to how you would with an ETF), you could use the excel sheets provided and filter for the names which seem to screen well on valuation metrics.
A lot of tickers to research in. Thanks.
Have you got a chance to check the PATH (UiPath) stock - RPA software developer which claims to integrate some sort of AI stuff (part of its software). In 2017 I had a chance to pass Accenture Bootcamp in RPA and was amazed how this RPA stuff can automatize workflow. Probably, now it is even more efficient.
+ The product has leading position in the field according to Gartner (valued higher than Microsoft's stuff)
+ SBC seems slowing
+ Ai component + Automatization
+ Technically, the stock looks like starting from the base of 10-20 usd (former highs at 80-90ies)
+ Acquisiton target for CRM/MSFT and others?
- Kathy seems to like it
===
would be great to hear smth critical against this stock.
I haven’t done much work on it but your last con is a pretty significant one 😂
Looks like the PDF and Excel Spreadsheet pages aren't working now.
Hi Citrini I just paid for the annual subscription and I am still showing up as a free subscriber on Substack. My email is maraj.kevin@gmail.com please help to resolve this.
Can we do some follow up on this basket?
AVGO's networking equip is actually a big deal because data centers do not want to get locked into NVIDIA even more with InfiniBand and etc. The reason why NVIDIA gets used over AMD is mostly because of CUDA.
Also tensorFlow sucks and Google don't know how to build good products.
With run up how do we determine what is still a long term buy now if we are new subscribers?
Valuation wise how do you sort the taiwanese tickers? Anything you think is still cheap?
Citrini, does it make sense to buy calls and sell puts on some of these names for a year horizon? Just wondering how to enter now given NDX is starting to flirt with all time highs and all these names have run up very steeply!
Any reason south korea is not included .. Samsung, Hynix... seem to be beneficiaries
Do you think that the overperformance of your basket vs SMH is due to the inclusion of non-US holdings ? Have you ever charted your non-US as a basket versus SMH ? As a way to simplify the investment process one strategy could be to buy SMH and add the non-US holdings individually, maybe.
Mr. Citrini, have you ever considered an idea to play AI cycle via mining sector?
The following logic might be applied: Semiconductors, electrification might require more specific metals (Copper, tin, graphene, ...), so we can research for suitable mining players in this area. High beta play - explor. co's (preferably in N.A. region - US, Canada). TSXV index seems to be in big depression.
I don’t necessarily think we’re there yet vis a vis semiconductor resource needs.